He looks for stocks with good growth in earnings, revenues, and cash flow, and significant insider buying or ownership.
Price/earnings ratio under 12.
ราคาลงมา/อยู่ใกล้ Book value เท่านั้น
If a stock I buy goes down 10 percent and the fundamentals haven’t changed, I might well buy more.
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What is the specific checklist you use before buying a stock?
The stock must meet the following criteria:
1. The company has a good track record in terms of growing their earnings per share, revenues per share, and cash flow per share.
2. The company has an attractive book value [the theoretical value of a share if all the company’s assets were liquidated and its liabilities paid off] and a high return on equity.
3. The stock is down sharply, often trading near its recent low. But this weakness has to be due to a short-term reason while the long-term fundamentals still remain sound.
4. There is significant insider buying or ownership.
5. Sometimes a company having a new management team with a good track record of turning companies around may provide an additional reason to buy the stock.
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กฎการเทรด
Research ให้เยอะที่สุด
ให้แน่ใจว่าตัวเองรู้จักบริษัทที่จะเทรดมากที่สุด
Buy low
มีวินัย อย่าให้อารมณ์มามีส่วนร่วม
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Position sizing / Money management
What is the maximum amount of your portfolio that you would allocate to a single stock?
At this point, the maximum I would hold on any single stock is about 30 percent of the portfolio.
It used to be as high as 70 percent.
That sounds like an extremely large
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ขาย
Take profit เอากำไร 20-30% ต่อตัวเท่านั้น
Cut loss เมื่อพื้นฐานเปลี่ยน (ไม่ได้ระบุ %)
I always have a target price at which I will get out, assuming the fundamentals haven’t changed. Usually it is 20% to 25%. I never go for home runs.
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ควบคุมความเสี่ยง
- กระบวนการคัดกรองหุ้นสุดละเอียด
ตัวเลขทางการเงินที่เสี่ยงต่ำ Because I know the companies I buy.
For example, if I buy Viasoft at $7, a company that has $5 per share in cash and no debt, what is my downside—$2?
- One technique Okumus uses to enhance his performance is the sale of out-of-the-money puts on stocks he wishes to own. He sells puts at a strike price at which he would buy the stock anyway.
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ข้อเสีย
ชอร์ตผิดตัว Amazon, หุ้น dot com พอร์ตแทบพัง
พลาดหุ้นรอบใหญ่ 80-90%
เก็บเงินสดอยู่เฉย ๆ เป็นส่วนมาก
มีหุ้นน้อยตัวมาก ที่เข้าสูตรซื้อของเขา
ใช้ความอดทนและวินัยขั้นสูง - รอคอย
ปี 1999 There are no bargains around. I’m not risking the money I’m investing until I find stocks that are very cheap.”
Don’t get involved when there is too much mania. You can’t forecast mania. If a stock that should be selling at 10 is trading at 100, who is to say it can’t go to 500.
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ข้อดี
Win rate 90%
My main goal is to make money on every investment, not necessarily to catch every trade. Since 1992, 90 percent of my trades have been winners.
บางปี ปั้นพอร์ต 3xx% (triple digits) ในปีเดียว
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ผลงานล่าสุด(ตามหนังสือ)
2000 พอร์ตโต 49%
2001 โต 31%
2002 Okumus’s fund finished September at the low point of a drawdown and down over 40 for the year to date—the same percentage decline as the devastated Nasdaq index and a loss significantly larger than the 29 percent decline in the S&P 500.
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There are many roads to trading success, although none are particularly easy to find or to stay on.
